Heading into COP30, where tropical forests are set to be a central theme, it seemed worth looking today’s trajectories a little further forward and imagine where they might lead. Part 1 looked at possible fates of tropical forests. Part 2 is published here.
The first act of the forest crisis was destruction. The second, if there is to be one, must be design—deliberate, structural, and sustained. The world knows what is burning; what it hasn’t decided is whether it truly wants to stop it.
Last year, fires consumed over three million hectares of tropical forest, mostly in South America. Drought and El Niño played their roles, but deeper forces—weak governance, cheap credit for clearance, and markets that reward destruction—keep the cycle turning. The causes are structural, which means the solutions must be too.
- Power to those who already protect: More than a third of intact forests lie on Indigenous and community lands, where recognized rights sharply reduce deforestation. Yet few of these territories hold legal title. Accelerating land recognition and financing paralegals, registries, and protection for defenders are essential foundations for durable governance.
- Governance as infrastructure: Brazil and Indonesia proved that political will can reverse deforestation, but gains vanish when enforcement falters. Governance should be treated like infrastructure—funded, professionalized, and insulated from politics. Transparent permitting systems and environmental safeguards tied to infrastructure finance could turn deforestation corridors into sustainable production hubs.
- Productivity before expansion: Half of cleared Amazonian land is degraded pasture. Improving yields through soil restoration and credit for sustainable intensification can decouple growth from clearance. Secure tenure and affordable finance make these gains accessible to smallholders.
- Restore mosaics, not monocultures. Tree-planting alone will not save forests. Mixed restoration—combining natural regeneration, agroforestry, and community forests—restores biodiversity and livelihoods alike. Linking finance to verified ecosystem services could make such approaches investable.
- The forest as an economy. If the world is unwilling to pay for their protection, standing forests need income. Small-scale enterprises based on non-timber products can sustain livelihoods if markets value sustainability over scale. Pairing traditional knowledge with science can strengthen both yields and safeguards.
- From governance to narrative. Despair can raise money but not build systems. Hope grounded in evidence—whether community forestry successes or rebounding wildlife—keeps coalitions intact.
The next decade will determine whether forests remain climate stabilizers or slide toward chronic decline. The task ahead is less about discovery than discipline: protecting those who already protect, and building systems that endure after the spotlight fades.
