Near the end of each year or the start of a new one, I often publish an analysis of key issues to watch for rainforests in the year ahead. Here is my list for 2025: six critical storylines likely to shape the future of these vital ecosystems.
For reference, previous versions of this piece: 2024 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017
🌐 Geopolitics: Shifting leadership and environmental priorities
Geopolitical developments in 2025 will significantly influence rainforest conservation. In the United States, Donald Trump’s second presidency signals potential setbacks for global climate agreements, deforestation-free supply chains, and biodiversity initiatives. Meanwhile, in Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces domestic resistance to his conservation efforts despite recent progress in curbing deforestation. These dynamics underscore the delicate interplay between local political challenges and international disengagement, threatening rainforest protection.
💰 Macroeconomics: Economic trends and forest trajectories
Economic forces, including commodity prices and currency fluctuations, will directly affect deforestation patterns. Declining agricultural commodity prices might slow deforestation, but persistent inflation in countries like Brazil could incentivize speculative land-clearing. A strong U.S. dollar boosts exports of deforestation-linked goods, exacerbating forest loss. Additionally, fiscal pressures in resource-dependent nations may lead to prioritizing extraction over environmental safeguards.
🇪🇺 European Union’s Deforestation Regulation: A turning point?
The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) seeks to reduce deforestation by requiring sustainable sourcing of commodities like soy and palm oil. Although implementation is delayed until late 2025, the regulation faces hurdles, including high compliance costs for smallholder farmers and the risk of deforestation-linked goods being diverted to less-regulated markets. The EUDR’s success—or failure—will set a critical precedent for global trade policies and environmental accountability.
🤝 COP30: Amazon in the global spotlight
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), set to take place in Belém, Brazil, puts the Amazon at the center of global climate discussions. This landmark summit will focus on deforestation targets and financial mechanisms for conservation. However, geopolitical tensions and unmet financial commitments may undermine progress. The summit’s outcomes will profoundly influence global climate goals and the Amazon’s trajectory.
⚠️ Amazon Drought: A climate wake-up call
A severe drought in the Amazon, exacerbated by climate change, continues to strain ecosystems, agriculture, and hydropower. While La Niña conditions in 2025 may offer some relief, long-term drying trends and increased wildfire risks persist. These challenges echo broader vulnerabilities facing tropical forests worldwide.
🌿 Voluntary carbon market: At a crossroads
The voluntary carbon market is undergoing significant reforms as new standards aim to rebuild trust in REDD+ credits. The adoption of methodologies like ART TREES will be pivotal in determining the market’s integrity and effectiveness. Simultaneously, unresolved issues within the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 framework add complexity to international carbon trading.
🌳 Looking ahead
The future of tropical rainforests in 2025 will depend on navigating geopolitical shifts, economic pressures, regulatory challenges, and climate impacts. Whether global and local stakeholders can prioritize rainforest protection amid competing interests remains a crucial question for the year ahead.
