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An area of deforested land the size of Mexico could regrow without significant human intervention

215 million hectares of deforested and degraded former forest land are capable of natural regrowth without significant human intervention—an area larger than Mexico. That’s according to a study published last week in Nature.

The research, based on high-resolution satellite data analysis across the tropics, identified five nations—Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia—as having over half of this regeneration potential. The study considered a range of environmental and socioeconomic variables, from soil quality to population density.

Key findings include:
🌳 Extent of regeneration potential: Approximately 215 million hectares (Mha) across the tropics, with a carbon sequestration potential of 23.4 gigatonnes over 30 years.
🌳 High-potential countries: Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia account for 52% of global regeneration potential.
🌳 Regional breakdown: Neotropical regions hold the largest regeneration area (98 Mha), followed by the Indomalayan tropics (90 Mha) and Afrotropics (25.5 Mha).
🌳 Carbon benefits: Potentially adds 1 gigaton of annual carbon sequestration, a 14% increase over current rates in primary tropical forests.
🌳 Assisted regeneration: In areas needing intervention, removing obstacles (e.g., fire protection) could enhance regrowth speed and ecological benefits.
🌳 Economic pathways: Funding regeneration through ecosystem services or carbon markets presents viable financial support mechanisms, though certification standards are still needed, say the authors.

The study supports the argument that natural forest regeneration can offer a viable alternative to traditional tree planting in many regions, as it leverages existing ecological processes to restore degraded landscapes.

While it is generally less labor-intensive and costly, successful natural regeneration can be accelerated via targeted policy measures that give these areas space to recover on their own.

🔬Williams, B.A., Beyer, H.L., Fagan, M.E. et al. Global potential for natural regeneration in deforested tropical regions. Nature (2024).

Photo: Results of farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR) in Talensi District, Ghana, from 2019-2022. Image courtesy of World Vision.

By Rhett Ayers Butler

Rhett Ayers Butler is the Founder and CEO of Mongabay, a non-profit conservation and environmental science platform that delivers news and inspiration from Nature's frontline via a global network of local reporters. He started Mongabay in 1999 with the mission of raising interest in and appreciation of wild lands and wildlife.